Tuesday, October 23, 2007

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

This book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb covers the role of improbability through the metaphorical use of the term "Black Swan", which is meant to convey events which:

1. are so improbable as to be beyond prediction or expectation

2. have an impact which is significant and lasting

3. cause humans to concoct explanations after the fact which suggest the events were actually predictable.

"Good" Black Swans: Google, Facebook

"Bad" Black Swans: Minneapolis Bridge Collapse, 9/11

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